The wildfires that ran savage in Northern California this past October blazed through tens of thousands of acres in Sonoma and Napa County, causing billions of dollars of damage. However, unlike the hiring surges we saw after Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, we aren’t seeing many hiring surges in North California.

What’s going on?

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Although we’re starting to see the beginning of a large demand forecast for architects and food service managers, we’re not seeing surging demand for mechanical engineers, nurses, project managers or much else.

Why Is This Disaster Different?

Senator Kamala Harris blasted the Trump Administration last week, protesting that California wasn’t included in their disaster relief budget:

There are similar billions of dollars in damage, but as many others have opined, the Trump Administration might be punishing a state that didn’t vote for it. (Unlike Texas and Florida, which both swung for Trump.)

[FIXME: Bake out.]

Food Service and Property Management Jobs

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Demand for both food service managers and property managers took an initial hit with the onset of the fire. I suppose no one was hiring while an unconstrained fire was still going on, but both jobs rose steady back to their all year high.

If your house has smoke or fire damage, it seems a reasonable time to start eating out everyday while your kitchen is replaced. Or perhaps you just decide to rent out an apartment until the house is livable. 8,000 people are currently displaced and living in temporary rentals.

Demand for property managers reached a peak of +241% and has shone no signs of dissipating. Similarly, demand for food service managers has hit +228% and also is still on the grow.

If you’re in the food service or property management profession, now is a good time to take your skills to Sonoma County and the surrounding Northern California area. 

Architecture & Drafting Jobs

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Demand for drafters increase to +98% and architects rise to +65% above average demand in Sonoma County.

Following both Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma demand for architects and drafters went souring up. But in each of these cases, we saw these demands start only to increase around a month after the disaster.

4,658 homes were destroyed by the Tubbs wildfires. That number is between Houston’s 800 destroyed homes and the Florida Key’s 13,250 destroyed homes. Because of this, and the later starting date of the disaster, we forecast a sizable increased demand for architects and drafters.

If you’re an architect or drafter and you want to design new homes in Northern California, you should keep an eye on the job market there — they’re going to need you. Let us know or try ApplicationAssistant.

(If you don’t care about the math-y details, just skip ahead to the next section. If you want to nerd out with us, feel free. We’re all nerds at heart here at TalentWorks.)

Our Methodology

We performed a timeseries analysis of a random subsample of 52,866 job postings from the past 5 months in South Florida, covering 103 distinct industries and roles. For each role, we then regressed the number of job postings per day using a blended linear kernel and computed p-values using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, comparing post-hurricane samples to a 90-day pre-hurricane baseline period. The above is a selection of  jobs that had p-values less than 0.100.

Although the above graphs don’t explicitly control for seasonality, we cross-checked seasonality separately and found that they can’t explain the surges above. We also did an initial perturbation analysis and verified the above surges are robust to noise.

Next Steps: What Can You Do?

“That’s cute and all, but what am I supposed to do with all of that?” (You might be thinking…) Here are two things you can do today:

  1. Are you looking for a job? If you’ve been displaced by Hurricane Irma or Harvey, I’m making the executive decision today (perks of being CEO…) that TalentWorks will offer all of our help to you for free, including our Interview Guarantee. (We have an 88% success rate.) [*]
  2. Do you want personalized alerts about hiring surges near you? (So you can be first-in-line for job applications! Applying quickly matters, a lot.) To get real-time personalized alerts, upload your resume to TalentWorks.

[*] To make this happen, sign up for ApplicationAssistant normally and just email your TalentAdvocate proof that you lived near Florida or coastal Texas. It’ll ask for a credit card but we’ll update your plan immediately and you won’t get charged.

This is an ongoing series about the economic chaos of natural disasters. Next week, we’ll write about the effects of Hurricane Irma on hiring in South Florida. Want to stay up-to-date on all things about your job search? Sign up for our blog!

P.S. We’ll never spam you. We send at most one email a week.

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