Gun-Related Jobs Are Surging +79% After Parkland School Shooting

So far this year, there have been 17 school shootings — nearly 2 shootings a week. The NRA and #NeverAgain movements are locked in a battle royale; caught in the middle, political and corporate alliances are shifting as we speak. It’s hard to know what’ll happen in the end, but we’re starting to see its effects already—

After last month’s Parkland shooting, hiring for gun-related jobs has surged +79% above last year’s baseline. You can practically see the #NeverAgain movement rallying its forces, schools and cities hiring more police officers, and others getting more gun permits and buying more guns.

gun-rights-control-jobs-school-shootings

“A Good Guy With a Gun”

The NRA argues that only “a good guy with a gun” can stop a bad guy with a gun. (In yesterday’s school shooting, a good guy with a gun prevented a far worse tragedy.) Regardless of whether you agree with the NRA, the reality is this: after big school shootings, Americans want to add more guns — 89% of gun-related hiring in the past 2 months increased the number of guns, either directly or indirectly.

What does that mean? Here are some (representative) folks who were recently hiring:

  • Armed Protection Officer, Bingo Hall — 95 Bravo Protection Services
  • Grassroots Spring Intern — National Rifle Association
  • Regional Police Officer — Cleveland Clinic
  • Retail Firearms Lead Outfitter — Cabela’s

In the aftermath of every big school shooting, you can practically see gun retailers hiring more outfitters, gun lobbies gearing up for a fight, and schools and hospitals hiring more police officers.

#NeverAgain

On the other hand, the Parkland survivors point to their school resource officer who stood outside for ~30 minutes while kids died inside. They’re demanding gun reform — doing TV interviews, staging nationwide walkouts, launching pressure campaigns and generally raising hell to make it happen.

They’re badly out-numbered and out-moneyed: in the last 2 months, for every gun reform person that was hired, 9 others were hired that increased access to guns.

However, what #NeverAgain lacks in numbers, they make up in broad, grassroots support. While the 5 biggest pro-gun employers hired 61% of new employees promoting gun access (e.g. big retailers), the 5 biggest anti-gun employers hired just 32% of people promoting gun control (e.g. community non-profits).

For instance, here are some (representative) folks who were hiring recently:

  • Campaign Associate, Guns and Crime — American Progress
  • Crew Leader, READI Chicago — Heartland Alliance
  • Program Coordinator — Sandy Hook Promise

What Does This Mean?

Jobs are fundamental part of our lives: they’re our livelihoods, sure, but they’re also a reflection of our priorities. Here, you can see two things happening:

  • Big school shootings (Parkland last month and San Bernadino last year) have a clear impact on people. They start buying more guns and asking for more law enforcement and private security to protect their loved ones.
  • At the same time, people want fewer guns and stronger communities: they start donating to community organizations and lobbying for gun reform.

My takeaway: People care. Specifically, they care in two ways:

  1. You may not agree with their opinion, but they care enough to have one — and that’s 80% of the battle, in my opinion.
  2. They care about making their communities stronger and safer. And they care enough to put their money where their mouth is, from hiring more security to buying more guns to donating to community non-profits.

How Can We Help?

Do you want to do something to prevent future school shootings? Whether you’re an experienced gun enthusiast, newfound social activist or aspiring first responder, you can do something.

And we can help. We’re a mission-driven company and, as far as I see it, it’s our job to get you the job you deserve. Getting a job these days is hard, but finding a job that balances your personal mission and practical needs is especially hard. Sign up for TalentWorks and email your TalentAdvocate with what you need. We’ll do everything we can for you!

FAQ

  • Why should we trust you? TalentWorks indexes ~6 million jobs per month to help our users get the job they deserve. On average, TalentWorks subscribers get a 5.8x hireability boost over the competition and 90% of TalentWorks subscribers get an interview in 60 days or less. We understand jobs.
  • How’d you calculate this? Please tell me all the boring, technical details. We extracted a random sample of 25,000 jobs that mentioned the word “gun” from our index of ~91 million job postings. We then classified each posting as “pro-gun”, “anti-gun” or “other” based on company, posting text and job title. (You’d be surprised how many job postings refer to “nerf gun fights.” Bored yet?) Finally, we controlled for seasonality and indexability and plotted against school shootings from Wikipedia. All of this was done in Python using pandas, sklearn and bokeh.
  • What does this all (really) mean? You tell me. I’m a hard-headed idealist, so here’s how I choose to interpret the above: People care. You might not agree with their opinions, but they care enough to have one. And everyone (with their different opinions) is doing what they can to make a difference. It’s a start.

Why Are We Doing This?

With ApplicationAssistant, we can boost the average job-seeker’s hireability by ~5.8x. But, what makes ApplicationAssistant work has been an internal company secret until now. We’re fundamentally a mission-driven company and we believe we can help more people by sharing our knowledge. So, that’s exactly what we’re doing.

Creative Commons

We’re not only sharing this but also sharing all of it under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike license. In other words, as long as you follow a few license terms, this means you can:

  • Share: Copy, redistribute the material in any medium or format.
  • Adapt: Remix, transform, and build upon the material.
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Limited Recovery From California Wildfires: The Economic Chaos of Natural Disasters, Part III

The wildfires that ran savage in Northern California this past October blazed through tens of thousands of acres in Sonoma and Napa County, causing billions of dollars of damage. However, unlike the hiring surges we saw after Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma, we aren’t seeing many hiring surges in North California.

What’s going on?

Screenshot from 2017-11-07 13-52-21.png

Although we’re starting to see the beginning of a large demand forecast for architects and food service managers, we’re not seeing surging demand for mechanical engineers, nurses, project managers or much else.

Why Is This Disaster Different?

Senator Kamala Harris blasted the Trump Administration last week, protesting that California wasn’t included in their disaster relief budget:

https://www.harris.senate.gov/news/press-releases/harris-colleagues-press-senate-leadership-to-include-bipartisan-wildfire-funding-fix-in-upcoming-disaster-aid-legislation

There are similar billions of dollars in damage, but as many others have opined, the Trump Administration might be punishing a state that didn’t vote for it. (Unlike Texas and Florida, which both swung for Trump.)

[FIXME: Bake out.]

Food Service and Property Management Jobs

bokeh_plot (24)

Demand for both food service managers and property managers took an initial hit with the onset of the fire. I suppose no one was hiring while an unconstrained fire was still going on, but both jobs rose steady back to their all year high.

If your house has smoke or fire damage, it seems a reasonable time to start eating out everyday while your kitchen is replaced. Or perhaps you just decide to rent out an apartment until the house is livable. 8,000 people are currently displaced and living in temporary rentals.

Demand for property managers reached a peak of +241% and has shone no signs of dissipating. Similarly, demand for food service managers has hit +228% and also is still on the grow.

If you’re in the food service or property management profession, now is a good time to take your skills to Sonoma County and the surrounding Northern California area. 

Architecture & Drafting Jobs

bokeh_plot (25)

Demand for drafters increase to +98% and architects rise to +65% above average demand in Sonoma County.

Following both Hurricane Harvey and Hurricane Irma demand for architects and drafters went souring up. But in each of these cases, we saw these demands start only to increase around a month after the disaster.

4,658 homes were destroyed by the Tubbs wildfires. That number is between Houston’s 800 destroyed homes and the Florida Key’s 13,250 destroyed homes. Because of this, and the later starting date of the disaster, we forecast a sizable increased demand for architects and drafters.

If you’re an architect or drafter and you want to design new homes in Northern California, you should keep an eye on the job market there — they’re going to need you. Let us know or try ApplicationAssistant.


(If you don’t care about the math-y details, just skip ahead to the next section. If you want to nerd out with us, feel free. We’re all nerds at heart here at TalentWorks.)

Our Methodology

We performed a timeseries analysis of a random subsample of 52,866 job postings from the past 5 months in South Florida, covering 103 distinct industries and roles. For each role, we then regressed the number of job postings per day using a blended linear kernel and computed p-values using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, comparing post-hurricane samples to a 90-day pre-hurricane baseline period. The above is a selection of  jobs that had p-values less than 0.100.

Although the above graphs don’t explicitly control for seasonality, we cross-checked seasonality separately and found that they can’t explain the surges above. We also did an initial perturbation analysis and verified the above surges are robust to noise.


Next Steps: What Can You Do?

“That’s cute and all, but what am I supposed to do with all of that?” (You might be thinking…) Here are two things you can do today:

  1. Are you looking for a job? If you’ve been displaced by Hurricane Irma or Harvey, I’m making the executive decision today (perks of being CEO…) that TalentWorks will offer all of our help to you for free, including our Interview Guarantee. (We have an 88% success rate.) [*]
  2. Do you want personalized alerts about hiring surges near you? (So you can be first-in-line for job applications! Applying quickly matters, a lot.) To get real-time personalized alerts, upload your resume to TalentWorks.

[*] To make this happen, sign up for ApplicationAssistant normally and just email your TalentAdvocate proof that you lived near Florida or coastal Texas. It’ll ask for a credit card but we’ll update your plan immediately and you won’t get charged.


This is an ongoing series about the economic chaos of natural disasters. Next week, we’ll write about the effects of Hurricane Irma on hiring in South Florida. Want to stay up-to-date on all things about your job search? Sign up for our blog!



P.S. We’ll never spam you. We send at most one email a week.

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Hiring Is Surging Up To 3.2x After Hurricane Irma: The Economic Chaos of Natural Disasters, Part II

In its October report, the Department of Labor showed hiring had rebounded to normal after the hurricanes. Our last post showed that this was actually wrong: not only did it rebound, hiring surged 2.9x in some cases after Hurricane Harvey in Texas.

What about Hurricane Irma? What happened in Florida?

Screenshot from 2017-11-06 11-32-06

Compared to Texas, the surges are even more dramatic in Florida: for instance, demand for architects is surging by 3.2x, food service managers by 2.6x and claims examiners by 2.3x.

What’s the difference? And why is it happening? Let’s dig in a bit more.

Nursing & Medical Assistant Jobs

bokeh_plot (17)

185mph winds start knocking roofs off houses and throwing fully-grown trees through the air… it’s bound to hurt people. Right after Hurricane Irma, Florida governor Rick Scott pleaded for help: Florida needed 1,000 nurses to meet special needs in shelters across the state and they needed them now.

Medical needs don’t disappear the day after a hurricane hits. Demand for nurse practitioners, medical assistants and others surged up dramatically after Hurricane Irma. Although the surge has dissipated for most medical professions by now, demand is still up 1.4x for medical assistants in South Florida.

Hotel, Food Service & Property Management Jobs

bokeh_plot (18)

The luxury and hospitality industry was hit the hardest during September, but not evenly across the board.

Although many tourists decided to cancel plans in September, nearly 7 million people need to be evacuated from their homes and await for that order to be lifted. Some stayed in shelters, but many also went to hotels. We found post-hurricane demand was 1.5x for hotel managers and a staggering 2.6x for food service managers. Demand for food service managers are stilled increased by (1.7x pre-hurricane levels).

And although there’s an ongoing seasonal downturn for property management heading in the fall, we saw a brief but significant surge for property managers after Irma passed through. (If you can’t go home after an evacuation, where do you go? An apartment.) In just a few weeks, demand for property managers surged up by 90% in late September.

If you have experience in food service and are looking for a job, you need to look in South Florida — they need you and you need them. Let us know if we can help (we’re offering our services for free to anyone displaced by Hurricane Harvey or Irma; see below).

After the calamity comes the cost.

Insurance- and Finance-Related Jobs

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As with Hurricane Harvey, right after Hurricane Irma passed through, we saw a huge 2.3x surge in demand for claims examiners. Analysts estimate $42.5-$65 billion in property damage caused by Hurricane Irma. $19 billion of this estimated damage is just in Florida.

After the claims come in and the examiners return from inspections, what happens? If you’re a big insurance firm and about to pay out $6+ billion in damages, you might need someone with the mathematical mojo to figure out how you’re going to move all that money. In recent weeks, we’re seeing a 2.0x demand surge for financial analysts.

If you’re in the Gulf Coast or South and are looking for a financial analyst job, you should consider taking a short-term role in Florida.

Construction-Related Jobs

Hurricane Irma damaged 65% of all homes in the Florida Keys. That’s a mind-boggling level of damage. Many people have written about the shortage of contractors, but what else is this impacting?

Just a week after the hiring spike of claims examiners around September 15th above, you can see below that the demand for cost estimators jump up by +23% in just a few days below.

bokeh_plot (20)

You can practically see people working together, figuring out what needs to get done and then making it happen step-by-step. And then:

Once the estimators finish, surveyors start getting at it. After spiking dramatically up in early October, demand for surveyors is still increasing and currently 1.5x pre-hurricane levels.

Simultaneously, you can see demand for project managers increasing to 1.6x with a pronounced spike occurring on October 7th. Although demand started dropping briefly, demand for construction project managers actually started increasing again and is currently at 1.8x pre-hurricane demand.

If you’re a construction project manager or surveyor looking for work near the Gulf Coast, you should check out South Florida.

Design, Architecture & Engineering Jobs

Just as we need good people rebuilding on the ground, we also need people developing plans for destroyed buildings, testing structural integrity and drafting blueprints.

bokeh_plot (23).png

The #1 surge in post-hurricane demand? Architects, surging 3.2x over pre-hurricane levels. Although the surge peaked on October 7th, demand for architects is still up 1.6x over pre-hurricane levels. Similarly, demand for drafters surged dramatically (1.8x pre-hurricane levels) and is still at all-time highs (1.5x pre-hurricane demand).

Demand for architects spiked in Houston after Hurricane Harvey as our last article displayed, but not nearly as surging as in the after mass of Hurricane Irma. Why?

Hurricane Harvey damaged over 200,000 homes, but only 800 were completely destroyed (still a horrifying number). In contrast, Hurricane Irma destroyed 25% of the 53,000 homes in the Florida Keys. That’s 13,250 homes that are just gone.

It’s the difference between flood damage vs. wind damage. And it’s also the difference in demand for architects between Florida and Texas.

If you’re an architect or drafter and you want to design (hurricane-proof) buildings, you should search in Florida — they need you. These are rare, specialized skills and they’re hurting. Let us know or try ApplicationAssistant.


(If you don’t care about the math-y details, just skip ahead to the next section. If you want to nerd out with us, feel free. We’re all nerds at heart here at TalentWorks.)

Our Methodology

We performed a timeseries analysis of a random subsample of 52,866 job postings from the past 5 months in South Florida, covering 103 distinct industries and roles. For each role, we then regressed the number of job postings per day using a blended linear kernel and computed p-values using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, comparing post-hurricane samples to a 90-day pre-hurricane baseline period. The above is a selection of  jobs that had p-values less than 0.100.

Although the above graphs don’t explicitly control for seasonality, we cross-checked seasonality separately and found that they can’t explain the surges above. We also did an initial perturbation analysis and verified the above surges are robust to noise.


Next Steps: What Can You Do?

“That’s cute and all, but what am I supposed to do with all of that?” (You might be thinking…) Here are two things you can do today:

  1. Are you looking for a job? If you’ve been displaced by Hurricane Irma or Harvey, I’m making the executive decision today (perks of being CEO…) that TalentWorks will offer all of our help to you for free, including our Interview Guarantee. (We have an 88% success rate.) [*]
  2. Do you want personalized alerts about hiring surges near you? (So you can be first-in-line for job applications! Applying quickly matters, a lot.) To get real-time personalized alerts, upload your resume to TalentWorks.

[*] To make this happen, sign up for ApplicationAssistant normally and just email your TalentAdvocate proof that you lived near Florida or coastal Texas. It’ll ask for a credit card but we’ll update your plan immediately and you won’t get charged.


This is an ongoing series about the economic chaos of natural disasters. Next week, we’ll write about the effects of Hurricane Irma on hiring in South Florida. Want to stay up-to-date on all things about your job search? Sign up for our blog!



P.S. We’ll never spam you. We send at most one email a week.

Did you like this post? Share it with your friends!

15 Jobs With Surging Demand Near Houston: The Economic Chaos of Natural Disasters, Part I

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma devastated Texas and Florida, killing hundreds of people, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, and displacing tens of thousands of families. It wrecked the economy, wiping out 110,000+ jobs in September alone.

On Friday, the Labor Department released its October hiring report, showing that hiring had rebounded to normal: 261,000 jobs added. But, here’s what they missed: not only did it rebound, but hiring increased dramatically beyond 2017 norms in hurricane-affected regions.

houston-counselors-architects-project-managers-paralegals-hotel-managers.png

In coastal Texas, for instance, demand for project managers surged by +179%, nurses and counselors by +140%, and architects by +114%.

What’s the deal? Let’s dig in a bit.

Nursing & Counseling Jobs

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We all saw the horrifying videos of flood waters coursing through Houston, and many of us read about dangerous chemical contaminates leaking into the rising waters. As health concerns rose, so too did the demand for medical-related professions. We found a +94% jump in demand for nurse practitioners, +140% jump for registered nurses, and +110% jump for nursing aides.

Simultaneously, as people were returning home and seeing the devastation, the demand for mental health counselors rose too: we saw a +180% jump in demand for counselors, peaking in early October.

Although demand is dropping back down, if you’re in a medical- or mental health-related profession, and want to help in future national disaster crises, upload your resume to TalentWorks and we’ll alert you whenever we detect an imminent surge.

Hotel, Food Service & Property Management Jobs

houston-property-food-hotel-managers.png

Wait. I know what you’re thinking… “Didn’t I just see something about the hotel industry getting decimated by the hurricanes?” You’re right, they did.

There’s a big difference between tourists canceling plans and residents moving back: 1,000 tourists might cancel vacations right before a hurricane hits, but tens of thousands of residents will come home a week later and discover they need a place to stay. FEMA estimated that up to 53,000 people were living in hotels because of Hurricane Harvey.

In the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, demand jumped by +109% for hotel managers and by 71% for food service managers. Although demand has dissipated for hotel managers, demand for food service managers is actually increasing (+116% pre-hurricane levels), likely because people are coming home and realizing their kitchens are unusable.

Finally, hotels get expensive fast. Where do you go if you can’t go home? An apartment. In the past few weeks, demand for property managers jumped by +130% over pre-hurricane levels near Houston and Corpus Christi.

If you have experience in food service or property management and are looking for a job, you really need to look in coastal Texas — they need you and you need them. Let us know if we can help (we’re offering our services for free to anyone displaced by Hurricane Harvey or Irma; see below).

So, what now?

Insurance & Finance-Related Jobs

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You’re paying exorbitant prices for price-jacking hotels, medical bills, eating out. You need to pay for all that — insurance. And insurance companies need people to pay out all those damages. (And people to fix all that damage too, but we’ll get to that in a second.)

In the immediate aftermath of hurricane Harvey, we saw an +72% increase in hiring for claims examiners. Here’s the amazing part: insurance firms began hiring for claims examiners before Harvey had even made landfall! Insurance firms are big corporations who’ve seen this before; they’re putting their disaster response playbook in action.

If you’re a big corporation that knows you’re going to be paying out lots of money, what else do you need? Financial analysts who can help you figure out what it means for your bottom line. Demand for financial analysts jumped by +77% after Hurricane Harvey.

Architecture, Engineering & Construction Jobs

Let’s review some quick numbers: Harvey damaged nearly 200,000 homes in Texas. The shortage of laborers and contractors is well-known, but demand for professional construction-related jobs also surged way up. What do you need to rebuild a city?

houston-architect-drafter-civil-engineer.png

Architects, for one. Not only did demand for architects surge +114% in the immediate aftermath of Hurricane Harvey, demand for architects is still increasing and at nearly 2x average demand of recent months.

After architects draw up the blueprints, who do you call? Demand for drafters — the folks who make the actual technical plans — jumped by +51%. Simultaneously, demand for mechanical engineers surged by 35% and civil engineers by 28%. 

houston-project-managers-estimators.png

Finally, you start building. Beyond construction workers and laborers, there’s surging demand for professional, white-collar workers too. In mid-September, there was a +81% surge for cost estimators.

And, it’s still going: in just these past few weeks, there’s been a +179% hiring surge for construction project managers.


(If you don’t care about the math-y details, just skip ahead to the next section. If you want to nerd out with us, feel free. We’re all nerds at heart here at TalentWorks.)

Our Methodology

We performed a timeseries analysis of a random subsample of 54,826 job postings from the past 5 months in coastal Texas, covering 110 distinct industries and roles. For each role, we then regressed the number of job postings per day using a blended linear kernel and computed p-values using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, comparing post-hurricane samples to a 90-day pre-hurricane baseline period. The above is a selection of  jobs that had p-values less than 0.100.

Although the above graphs don’t explicitly control for seasonality, we cross-checked seasonality separately and found that they can’t explain the surges above. We also did an initial perturbation analysis and verified the above surges are robust to noise.

David Blaszka, one of TalentWorks’ data analysts, drove most of the research and analysis for this post. Kushal helped a bit and wrote a lot of this blog post.


Next Steps: What Can You Do?

“That’s cute and all, but what am I supposed to do with all of that?” (You might be thinking…) Here are three things you can do today:

  1. Are you looking for a job? If you’ve been displaced by Hurricane Irma or Harvey, I’m making the executive decision today (perks of being CEO…) that TalentWorks will offer all of our help to you for free, including our Interview Guarantee. (We have an 88% success rate.) [*]
  2. Do you want personalized alerts about hiring surges near you? (So you can be first-in-line for job applications! Applying quickly matters, a lot.) To get real-time personalized alerts, upload your resume to TalentWorks.
  1. Donate to the Southeast Texas Food Bank. Southeast Texas is going through a real food crisis, and their food banks are getting hit hard. If you can, please donate. I’ve already donated $103 and I’ll match the first $1,000 in donations (just forward your receipt to [email protected]).southeast-texas-food-bank-donation

[*] To make this happen, sign up for ApplicationAssistant normally and just email your TalentAdvocate proof that you lived near Florida or coastal Texas. It’ll ask for a credit card but we’ll update your plan immediately and you won’t get charged.


This is an ongoing series about the economic chaos of natural disasters. Next week, we’ll write about the effects of Hurricane Irma on hiring in South Florida. Want to stay up-to-date on all things about your job search? Sign up for our blog!



P.S. We’ll never spam you. We send at most one email a week.

Did you like this post? Share it with your friends!